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Banking sector on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

PZU AR 2021 > Shares and bonds > Banking sector on the Warsaw Stock Exchange
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Context in the banking sector

In 2021, the WIG Banks index1 was one of the strongest sector indices on the WSE, increasing by 81.3% y/y. The correlation between the WIG Banks index and the WIG20 index decreased to 77% (-11 p.p. y/y). The beta coefficient (in relation to WIG20) increased to 1.17, or by 0.04 y/y. The significant change in these indicators resulted from the excellent performance of the WIG Banks index (+81.3%) compared to the main WIG20 index (+14.3% y/y).

In 2021, the strongest growth was experienced by Alior Bank, which is part of the PZU Group, which increased by 222.3% y/y. In the corresponding period, the other bank in the PZU Group, i.e. Pekao, increased by 99.7% y/y (this without the dividend paid out in 2021 at PLN 3.21 per share).

The bull market in the banking sector in 2021 was very dynamic and unexpected. In 2020, most investors were convinced of the increasing risk related to the deterioration of Polish economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was to lead to an increase in provisions for non-performing loans. As a result, in 2020 WIG Banks was the weakest sector index, declining by almost 30% y/y. The year 2021 brought a very different scenario altogether. Economic recovery led to increased lending and transaction activity, which, combined with a broad range of optimization efforts and digitalization of operations, resulted not only in a more optimistic view of the sector’s future, but also in measurable financial results. According to the NBP , after 12 months of 2021, the net profit of the banking sector rose to PLN 8.9 billion compared to a loss of 0.3 billion at the end of 2020.

The increase in the valuation of banks was also driven by expectations of interest rate increases in response to a dynamic rise in inflation. In Q4 2021, the NBP2 increased the main interest rate from the historically lowest level of 0.1% to 1.75%, which was higher than the pre-pandemic rates – a promise of significantly higher profits on interest margins for banks.

WSE-listed banks in 2021 

Source: www.infostrefa.com

1 It is an income-based index (when it is calculated, it accounts for the prices of the underlying shares and the income from dividends and subscription rights)

2 https://www.nbp.pl/home.aspx?f=/statystyka/pieniezna_i_bankowa/naleznosci.html