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47.3 Quantitative data

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Provisions 31 December 2021 31 December 2020
Short-term 406 543
Long-term 800 835
Total provisions 1 206 1 378

Movement in provisions in the period ended 31 December 2021 Beginning of the period Increase Utilization Reversal Other changes End of the period
Provisions for guarantees and sureties given 555 340 - -401 2 496
Provision for retirement severance pays 323 32 -38 -4 -46 267
Provision for disputed claims and potential liabilities 80 34 -35 -11 1 69
Provision for potential refunds of borrowing costs 128 75 -83 - - 120
Provision for legal risk pertaining to mortgage loans in Swiss francs 91 43 - -2 - 132
Provision for penalties imposed by the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection 39 - - - - 39
Provision for restructuring costs 93 120 -137 -48 - 28
Provision for post-mortem benefits 32 1 -3 -4 -1 25
Other 37 12 -10 -9 - 30
Total provisions 1 378 657 -306 -479 -44 1 206

Movement in provisions in the period ended 31 December 2020 Beginning of the period Increase Utilization Reversal Other changes End of the period
Provisions for guarantees and sureties given 358 512 - -318 3 555
Provision for retirement severance pays 319 42 -31 -16 9 323
Provision for disputed claims and potential liabilities 80 27 -18 -4 -5 80
Provision for potential refunds of borrowing costs 254 144 -270 - - 128
Provision for tax risk - 4 - -89 85 -
Provision for legal risk pertaining to mortgage loans in Swiss francs 22 77 - -8 - 91
Provision for penalties imposed by the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection 85 11 - -57 - 39
Provision for restructuring costs 34 144 -85 - - 93
Provision for post-mortem benefits 25 5 - - 2 32
Other 34 21 -7 -11 - 37
Total provisions 1 211 987 -411 -503 94 1 378

Provision for potential refunds of borrowing costs

On 11 September 2019, the CJEU judgment in case C-383/18 was published. In its ruling, the CJEU stated that Article 16(1) of Directive 2008/48/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2008 on credit agreements for consumers and repealing Council Directive 87/102/EEC should be interpreted as meaning that the consumer’s right to reduce the total cost of credit in the event of an early repayment includes all costs that have been imposed on the consumer.

Based on the legal interpretations in its possession, for the settlement of credit costs with borrowers the PZU Group applied the linear formula whereby a pro rata approach is adopted based on the period between the actual loan repayment date and the repayment date specified in the loan agreement and requires that any non-recurring cost be broken down on a pro rata basis across all payment periods.

In the case of early repayments of consumer and mortgage loans made before the date of the CJEU judgment, the PZU Group estimates the amount of expected disbursements pursuant to IAS 37 and recognizes a provision for this purpose which is charged to other operating expenses.

In 2021, PLN 83 million of the provision was utilized and its amount as at 31 December 2021 was PLN 120 million (PLN 128 million as at 31 December 2020). Its value is the best possible estimate based on the historically observed trend of the amount of loan cost refunds arising from reported complaints and takes into account the scenario of a possible evolution of market practice or the regulator’s views. The estimates required the adoption of expert assumptions and are affected by uncertainty. For this reason, the provision amount will be subject to updates in the next periods, depending on the number of complaints and amounts to be refunded.

Significant assumptions applied for the estimation of the provision include the change in the rate of decline in the refunded amounts.

Impact of the change in the rate of decline in the amounts of refunds on the value of the provision 31 December 2021 31 December 2020
10% -5 -15
-10% 6 18

Provision for legal risk pertaining to FX mortgage loans in Swiss francs

On 3 October 2019, CJEU issued a ruling regarding the effects of possible abusiveness of the provisions of an individual agreement on a CHF-indexed loan granted by one of the banks. CJEU interpreted the provisions of Council Directive 93/13/EEC of 5 April 1993 on unfair terms in consumer contracts in the context of the Swiss franc-indexed loan agreement. CJEU specified the effects of declaring the possible abusiveness of the conversion clauses by the national court, without analyzing at all the possible abusiveness of the contractual provisions. CJEU did not rule that if the national court deems a clause abusive, then it should automatically declare the entire agreement invalid. An assessment in this respect is up to the national court, however CJEU did not rule out the possibility of supplementing the gap resulting from the abusiveness of the conversion clauses using national supplementary provisions.

The CJEU ruling provides general guidance for Polish ordinary courts. The ultimate resolutions made by Polish courts will be based on EU regulations interpreted in accordance with the CJEU judgment, taking into consideration the national laws and analysis of the individual circumstances of each case. At the same time, there is still no established line of rulings in cases involving mortgage loans in Swiss francs, an observation that is often corroborated by mutually exclusive judgments issued by ordinary courts and requests for a preliminary ruling sent by ordinary courts to the CJEU and the Supreme Court to resolve their legal doubts. One should highlight the application submitted on 29 January 2021 by the First President of the Supreme Court to the full composition of the Supreme Court’s Civil Chamber regarding the question of resolution of the legal issues associated with CHF mortgage loans regarding, in particular, the following aspects:

  • can abusive provisions regarding the method of determining the exchange rate of the currency in an indexed or denominated loan agreement be replaced by the provisions of civil or common law;
  • if it is impossible to determine a binding exchange rate of a foreign currency in a denominated loan agreement, can the agreement bind the parties to the remaining extent;
  • if it is impossible to determine a binding exchange rate of a foreign currency in a loan agreement, can the agreement bind the parties to the remaining extent;
  • if a loan agreement is invalidated will the theory of balance or the theory of two condictions apply;
  • what is the moment determining the start of the statute of limitations period if the bank makes a claim against the borrower for refund of the disbursed loan;
  • is it possible for banks and borrowers to receive remuneration for the use of funds.

In the opinion of the PZU Group, the Supreme Court ruling in the above issues may have significant impact on the further line of court rulings in this respect. However, it is uncertain whether and when the full panel of the Civil Chamber will adopt a resolution on these legal questions.

As at 31 December 2021, 1,623 individual court cases were pending against the PZU Group over foreign currency mortgage loans in Swiss francs, which were granted in previous years with the total disputed amount of PLN 470 million (as at 31 December 2020 there were 592 cases pending with the value of PLN 160 million). The main cause of the litigation specified by plaintiffs pertains to challenging the provisions of the loan agreement as regards the application by the PZU Group of the exchange rates and results in claims to declare the loan agreements partially or fully invalid.

In 2021, the PZU Group received 125 unfavorable court judgments in cases filed by borrowers, including 20 final judgments, and 11 favorable judgments, including 4 final judgments (in 2020: 36 unfavorable court judgments in cases filed by borrowers, including 3 final judgments declaring the loan agreement invalid, and 13 favorable court judgments, including 2 final judgments dismissing the claim for declaring the loan agreement invalid).

The following tables present the amounts of provisions for individual court cases in which the PZU Group is a party and a portfolio provision for the remaining FX mortgage loans in Swiss francs which are exposed to legal risk associated with the nature of these agreements.

Consolidated statement of financial position line items 31 December 2021 31 December 2020
Impairment losses for loan receivables from clients 516 345
   individual provision 220 65
   portfolio provision 296 280
Other provisions 132 91
   individual provision 52 11
   portfolio provision 80 80
Total 648 436

Consolidated profit and loss account line items 1 January – 31 December 2021 1 January – 31 December 2020
Movement in allowances for expected credit losses and impairment losses on financial instruments -172 -309
Other operating expenses -42 -68
Total -214 -377

As regards the portfolio provision, as at 31 December 2021, the PZU Group based the calculations on 3 possible scenarios, to reflect best in the estimates of the portfolio provision the various possible solutions regarding CHF mortgage loans which may occur, given the current situation in the banking sector.

The calculation of the provision carried out as at 31 December 2021 was based on the following scenarios:

  • baseline scenario – considered the most likely, assumes that approx. 12% of FX borrowers (with both active and repaid loans) will file statements of claim challenging the loan agreement and estimates the probability of losing the court cases and the possible financial effects if the case is lost, adopting the following possible resolutions:
    • invalidating the entire CHF mortgage loan agreement as a result of recognizing the indexation clause as abusive;
    • recognizing the clauses contained in the loan agreement as abusive clauses resulting in determining the loan balance in PLN and leaving the loan interest rate based on the LIBOR rate (the so-called currency conversion of a CHF loan agreement);
    • recognizing the indexation clause as abusive and replacing the bank’s exchange rate table in it with the average NBP exchange rate;
    • dismissing the statement of claim.

Under the baseline scenario, as at 31 December 2021, the current situation in the macroeconomic environment is taken into account, including the current trends in judicial decisions regarding FX mortgage loans and the existing own and market history of lawsuits. Moreover, the probability of legal defeats and the probabilities of possible solutions in the event of a dispute were estimated based on an updated opinion of an external law firm.

An additional element of the estimates in the base scenario is the distribution of the probability of the possible resolution of the disputable case which is associated with a specific level of loss. The biggest share in possible resolution scenarios – 80% (70% as at 31 December 2020) was assigned to invalidating the loan agreement. No out-of-court settlements with customers are assumed in this scenario;

  • out-of-court settlement scenario – possible in the current market conditions, in which most customers (approx. 80% of the portfolio value) will qualify for the bank settlement option, based on solutions being rolled out in the banking sector, as proposed by the Chairman of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority. Under the out-of-court settlement scenario, the financial effects are equal to the sum of the differences between the current balance of the CHF loan and the balance of the PLN mortgage loan based on the WIBOR rate plus the loan margin, granted at the same time and for the same term as the CHF loan and repaid by the borrower in accordance with the repayments made in the CHF loan. As a result, under the current market parameters, the cost of out-of-court settlements would total approx. PLN 511 million. For contracts currently in dispute, an assessment is underway of the possible tendency of customers to withdraw the lawsuit and enter into a settlement, taking into account in this assessment the relation of the benefit that may be obtained by the customer from the settlement to the potential benefit from the lawsuit (including the legal representation costs) and the expected outcome of the litigation;
  • negative scenario – possible in the event of a significant deterioration of the macroeconomic environment, in particular in terms of a significant intensification and deepening of the adverse trend regarding the unfavorable judgments issued by ordinary courts in respect of foreign currency mortgage loans, the number of possible lawsuits will be twice as high as the one assumed in the baseline scenario with a simultaneous greater likelihood of unfavorable court judgments. In terms of the probability distribution of possible outcomes of the litigation, in this scenario, a higher probability of the whole foreign currency mortgage agreement being declared invalid (at a level of 95% of decisions – percentage levels unchanged compared to those assumed in 2020). No out-of-court settlements with customers are assumed in this scenario.

Although the subject matter of legal risk related to the portfolio of foreign currency mortgage loans has been one of the key topics in the banking sector in recent years, there is still no stabilized history of data on the scale of lawsuits (in particular with regard to final non-appealable judgments) or regarding the line of judicial decisions in this area. All of the foregoing means that the process of determining the amount of the provision each time requires the adoption of a number of expert assumptions based on professional judgment.

New rulings and possible sectoral solutions which will appear in the Polish market for CHF mortgage loans may have impact on the amount of the provision established by the PZU Group and necessitate a change of individual assumptions adopted in the calculations. In connection with this uncertainty it is possible that the provision amount will change in the future.

The PZU Group carried out a sensitivity analysis for the major assumptions of provision calculations, where a change of the level of individual parameters would have the following impact on the provision amount for the legal risk of CHF mortgage loans.

Parameter Scenario Impact on the amount of the provision 31 December 2021 Impact on the amount of the provision 31 December 2020
Number of cases brought to court +20% 97 34
-20% -73 -34
Probability of losing the case +10 p.p.(in 2021: no more than 100%) 61 26
-10 p.p. -47 -26
Probability of the agreement invalidation scenario +10 p.p. (in 2021: no more than 100%) 53 10
-10 p.p. -37 -10

Provisions for guarantees and sureties given

This item includes provisions recognized by banks for the potential loss of economic benefits resulting from off-balance sheet exposures (e.g. granted guarantees or credit exposures).

Provision for penalties imposed by the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection

The amount of 28 million pertains to a penalty returned by the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection to Pekao. Due to the potential risk of outflow of resources in connection with this case, the PZU Group maintains a provision to cover this risk.

The amount of PLN 11 million pertains to the penalty imposed by the President of the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection as a result of the decision in which he deemed that the clause used by Pekao in annexes to agreements on the rules for setting foreign exchange rates is an impermissible contractual clause. Pekao intends to submit an appeal to the court against the decision made by the President of UOKiK.

Provision for restructuring costs

The Pekao Management Board reported that on 3 March 2021, in accordance with the provisions of the Act on the Rules for Terminating Employment Relationships it adopted a resolution concerning the intention of conducting group layoffs and commencing the consultation procedure on group layoffs.

The total costs related to the termination of employment contracts and to the modification of the employment conditions of Pekao employees under group layoffs has been estimated at PLN 120 million and the restructuring provision in this amount has been established for this purpose. As at 31 December 2021, the value of the provision was PLN 17 million and pertained to disbursements to be made in 2022.

The remaining balance is made up of:

  • PLN 9 million – pertaining to the restructuring process conducted in PZU and PZU Życie (PLN 9 million as at 31 December 2020);
  • PLN 2 million – pertaining to the restructuring processes in Alior Bank (as at 31 December 2020: PLN 3 million).